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 Market Update 7-14
by Edgar J. Steele

September 20, 2007  

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My name is Edgar J. Steele.

A list member wrote this morning:  "Ed do you think we will hit the 77 mark today? As I type we are at 78.52."

No. I think we've seen pretty close to what it will end at for today (78.41 right now, though still sinking). I'm betting on some light artillery as it closes 1-1/2 hours from now and, possibly, some pounding in the extended market later tonight, then the big guns come out tomorrow and pound it back up for people to think about over the weekend.

They've given up 79, pretty clearly, and with less of a fight than I thought they would muster, but they simply have to make a major showing and keep it above 78 for a while. How long? Two weeks, maybe a month, but I don't think they can hold things off much longer than that. Then things become REALLY interesting.

But, hey, what do I know?

Even so, my call to exit SLV a few days ago and jump into mining stocks was right on the money, similar to when I called for dumping gold and buying silver almost two years ago. I just wish I had jumped into HL and SLW, rather than SSRI and PAAS. If the pounding comes tomorrow as I think it will, then I might move laterally from SSRI into SLW, because it should drop about twice as fast as SSRI, then go up at the same rate when it turns around. Too many things about SSRI that list members have said to me are bothersome.

CDE's management acts too much like GG's since the Glamis takeover to suit my taste (yes, Glamis actually took over GG, not the other way 'round).

The lead article at silverseek.com right now seems to be a direct reply to my call to bail on SLV, even though I don't think my list message got much further than my immediate list. I don't know the author, but I know the site's owner is at Silver Summit in Cd'A today and tomorrow and has to be distracted. I gotta wonder if it is disinformation. I'm not down just on SLV, though it is at the top of my nervous list - I'm down on all ETFs and dumped what little GLD I had just this morning. No more ETFs, methinks, except perhaps the Canadian CEF - physical makes a lot more sense and gets just as much of the profit.

Notice my presumption that the dollar and silver are moving inversely from here on out. The recent COT short reduction indicates a major up move in silver. Heaven knows the dollar is headed for the basement.

The wild card is the international markets, of course. The Saudis are contemplating decoupling, as I am sure so many others are thinking of doing. A sudden rush for the exits could put the dollar on a freight elevator for the level marked WWIII. Change "could put" to "will," because it simply is a question of when - probably sooner than later.

-ed

Copyright 2007, Edgar J. Steele

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